If not now, when?

"If not now, when?" is attributed to Rabbi Hillel: "If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If I am not for others, what am I? And if not now, when?"

Monday, November 15, 2004

The Powell Doctrine

I don't know if you've had a chance to see the PBS special on Colin Powell and "The Powell Doctrine," but it should be running again, in light of his resignation, and it's very good. In the meantime, here's a link to the PBS website for teachers (the brief form—you can explore further for more information).

In short, the PBS special stressed that Powell framed his doctrine prior to the Gulf War in 1991 and based it on what the military leadership and he himself (as an officer in Vietnam) learned from the Vietnam War. As the special pointed out, after the Vietnam War, the army was "broken" (the term the Army used) and military leaders assumed we must avoid another unwinnable war like Vietnam.

The PBS website provides this abstract: "Essentially, the Doctrine expresses that military action should be used only as a last resort and only if there is a clear risk to national security by the intended target; the force, when used, should be overwhelming and disproportionate to the force used by the enemy; there must be strong support for the campaign by the general public; and there must be a clear exit strategy from the conflict in which the military is engaged."

PBS quotes Powell in 1992: "We must not, for example, send military forces into a crisis with an unclear mission they cannot accomplish--such as we did when we sent the U.S. Marines into Lebanon in 1983. We inserted those proud warriors into the middle of a five-faction civil war complete with terrorists, hostage-takers, and a dozen spies in every camp, and said, 'Gentlemen, be a buffer.' The results were 241 Marines and Navy personnel killed and a U.S. withdrawal from the troubled area."

As we all know, the Bush Administration did not follow the Powell Doctrine in its headstrong rush to war in Iraq, against a populace impoverished by U.N. economic sanctions and arms-restricted by U.N. WMD sanctions, that was barely held back from civil war by a ruthless dictator. No one expected Powell to stay with the Administration after his "tour of duty" was over, but he was a loyal soldier who remained at his post until his term was over.

PBS offers this 1993 newspaper critique of the war about to begin in Iraq: "The impending war in Iraq, however, arguably meets only one criterion of the Powell Doctrine. Weapons inspectors have just begun their work, which is why France, Russia, and China argue that war is not yet a last resort. Public support for a war in Iraq is hardly strong. In the most recent New York Times/CBS News poll, while a majority of Americans support the use of force as an option, 59 percent want to give the United Nations and weapons inspectors more time. The divided opinion reflects the lack of a well-defined national interest in going to war now. The Bush administration has tried to portray a pre-emptive war against as essential to the war on terrorism, but the evidence of the 'links' between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda is highly questionable."

Think of the Iraq war in light of the points of the Powell Doctrine: (a) last resort to an imminent threat, (b) overwhelming U.S. forces, (c) strong public support, and (d) clear exit strategy. Clearly the war was not a last resort nor was this claim made at the time. Nor was there an imminent threat: no links between Saddam and al Qaeda or 9/11, no WMDs or active programs to produce WMDs. The only way Mr. Bush was able to justify the war and create limited public approval was to rely on shaky reports from disgruntled Iraqi expatriots; these proved to be false, as many within the international and Washington community feared. In addition, we did not have sufficient forces to overwhelm the enemy and secure Iraqi munitions, and these have fallen into the hands of the insurgents (remnants of Saddam's army and their post-invasion recruits) and possibly others. We have no clear exit strategy, as the Bush Administration did not plan for the civil strife that was seething in Iraq, nor did it foresee that the Iraqi Army would resort to guerilla warfare as a defense. Our soldiers have not been trained to fight a guerilla war because our military believed that we would never involve our troops in another war like Vietnam—with the Powell Doctrine as a protection.

But military leaders were ignored and politicians started this war. So that now, 18 months after "the fall of Baghdad," parts of Baghdad are still too dangerous for our troops to move freely. This past week, we fought house-to-house to retake a city 50 miles from Baghdad, while leaders of the insurgents moved to other cities on the outskirts of Baghdad.

We still haven't secured Baghdad or the metropolitan area. In addition, the roads throughout Iraq are unsafe, even for rescue workers. We cannot begin to rebuild because of continued violence against anyone associated with the U.S.

We should take a moment to reflect on the wisdom of the Powell Doctrine, because it throws light on Bush's reckless rush to war and its catastrophic consequences.

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